13d 17:18:02
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13d 17:18:02
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PitchMind
AST
39%
You
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Community
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PitchMind vs community
Live lean from the model and from fans in this room
PitchMind
Community
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PitchMind lean: AST (39%)
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Sun 23 Aug, 14:00
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Match contextStandings, model call, H2H, formHide
League table
Premier League · 2025/2026
Aston Villa 4th · 65 pts · Brighton 8th · 53 pts
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | +44 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | +42 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | +19 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | +7 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | +10 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | +4 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | -6 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | +6 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | +3 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | +6 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | -4 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | -2 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | -3 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | -7 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | -10 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | -3 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | -9 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | -19 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | -37 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | -41 | 20 |
PitchMind call
Fair · 68%Why this lean — without exposing model weights
BRI
1
Expected goals
AST
1
- This one looks close — our top prediction is only 39%, so treat it as uncertain.
- Our different checks mostly point the same way.
- We have solid info for this match.
- Mixed picture — recent form: Aston Villa; team strength: Aston Villa; likely scorelines: Brighton.
Head to head
Last 7 meetings between these sides
Wins
1
14%
Draws
1
14%
Wins
5
71%
Avg goals
3.7
BTTS
57%
Over 2.5
71%
- L
11 Feb 2026 · Premier League
Aston Villa1-0Brighton - L
03 Dec 2025 · Premier League
Brighton3-4Aston Villa - L
02 Apr 2025 · Premier League
Brighton0-3Aston Villa - D
30 Dec 2024 · Premier League
Aston Villa2-2Brighton - W
05 May 2024 · Premier League
Brighton1-0Aston Villa - L
30 Sept 2023 · Premier League
Aston Villa6-1Brighton - L
28 May 2023 · Premier League
Aston Villa2-1Brighton
Recent form
Last 7 finished matches · form % = points taken ÷ max points (3 pts per game)
Brighton
Last 7 finished · 2nd form
47.6%
Form
- L
24 May · Premier League · H
vs Manchester United 0-3
- L
17 May · Premier League · A
vs Leeds 1-0
- W
09 May · Premier League · H
vs Wolves 3-0
- L
02 May · Premier League · A
vs Newcastle 3-1
- W
21 Apr · Premier League · H
vs Chelsea 3-0
- D
18 Apr · Premier League · A
vs Tottenham 2-2
- W
11 Apr · Premier League · A
vs Burnley 0-2
Aston Villa
Last 7 finished · 1st form
61.9%
Form
- W
24 May · Premier League · A
vs Manchester City 1-2
- W
20 May · UEFA Europa League · A
vs SC Freiburg 0-3
- W
15 May · Premier League · H
vs Liverpool 4-2
- D
10 May · Premier League · A
vs Burnley 2-2
- W
07 May · UEFA Europa League · H
vs Nottingham Forest 4-0
- L
03 May · Premier League · H
vs Tottenham 1-2
- L
30 Apr · UEFA Europa League · A
vs Nottingham Forest 1-0
Lineups: Awaiting lineups. Injuries and deeper markets live on the full match page.